woensdag 9 mei 2012

is this the dip?

If i look at the market it was expected that the prize would fall , only what the trigger would be is always depending on the world news, but will it go lower ?

lets look if this is the max low

Points this was the dip or it is just going a little down and up again:

1) looks like the gold and silver coins business is doing good and it can hit the point that they run out of silver coins/stock (the stores)
2) normal the lows are very quick, spike and low and then it retreat back to the 30+ area.
3) it is getting more in the news so people will look at silver and gold and start investing more in it.

So the above points would indicate that this dip would be short lived but how short is unclear.

This is not the dip points;

1) problems in Europa are not over and the problems are getting bigger and maybe more metal will be dumped and china en India are not in the position to buy all the metal that is dumped now so this drives the prize down.
2) looking at the complete market it looks like all is going down so maybe this is not a commodity issue but something else and people are pulling there money out of the market and go in dollars so can this be the Facebook effect we will know at 18 or 20 of the month. it is like a tsunami first the sea will go back to from the big wave...
3) The yen is getting more stronger this can indicate that there is some thing going on on the money market. and it also push the buying prize down here in Japan

So because there is not a big change in the news this can mean that the next days the prize will fall more and go slowly to the 27 / 26 ...
I decided to wait and get ready to buy again.. my focus point is yen dollar at around 78 or 77  and silver at low 27 .. but need to watch at the dollar strength also...
I also will wait at last 3 / 5 days (until 18th) to watch how the market is behaving .. this is always a gamble but I think this behavior can be linked to face book and the Europa thing need to stabilize again  

What will follow..
I expect that the run up will be very strong and you will have not really time to buy more at that time, so the timing is very difficult or you buy not at the max dip point, so I calculate what for me if the best price to buy so my overall silver price is lower as now .. making my profit bigger with the run up.
I also expect the first run not to go very high, and expect a strong pullback again .. but I hope it will peak around 47 / 55 and then stabilize again around 40 / 45..
But I hope after the elections in the USA it will rally to around 100, so I hope there will a change to step out and step in cheaper into silver this year and get 15% more silver for the same money. 
 

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