vrijdag 18 mei 2012

The yen is getting stronger again

the yen went from 80 to 79 (-1.25%) drop  and silver from 27 now to 28.6 (+5.5% gain). so silver went up +4.25%. in Japan
now after the IPO of Facebook we still see a upwards trend in the charts. will this mean that silver and gold will continue up?
If we look at the oil price then this upward trend is not in there charts. also with the stock market there is not a spike up like this ... so will this mean that gold and silver will go down again .?
or will it now break with the others and go up because of the problems in Europa and that is the main cause of the rise.

so there are again two possibilities
1) it goes up because of the problems getting more severe in Europa.
2) it goes down be cause it will follow the economic decline just as the other commodities.

To make sense of the last days I think you also need to look at the yen dollar exchange ..
the last two days when the gold and silver price started to rise the yen exploded again upwards .. so are these two things linked?
Also the euro drop... so it looks like there is a link between currencies and gold..
 
also you would think if japan is getting hurt by there European bond , that the price of the yen would go down and not up against the dollar , if you look at the euro then you see a spike down against the dollar .. so is this a sign that the yen is still a save haven .. ??

Here are my ideas for the future ;

So what will happen... (sort term)
I think the next days the movement will be vertical and after some bad new out of Europa , the price will be push down of silver and gold .. also the euro and the dollar will lose more ground with the yen.. So I hope the BOJ will not step in for a while (hope to see 77 exchange raid at the end) so gold and silver will be really cheap in Japan.
I also hope that silver and gold will go down again I think it is still possible to see a 26 or even a 24 in the silver price.
So this is what is possible the next weeks .. but I give the only a 20%the uptrend is more strong if you look at the complete picture but the yen is not fitting in there so I hope we will see a drop again .. soon .. if not and we see some movement soon when Greece is leaving Europa, this data is than useable when Spain and maybe other country will leave.

The big problem is how will silver and gold react it can be the money maker ?? 
 but how must you play the market to win ??


what will happen in the long future (my opinion)


I think the problems with Europa are still not fixed and the real effect on gold is not shown until, the European banks need to start to sell gold to see the real effect ..
I see the banks to be force in doing this because if the price of gold gets lower they loss money and so they are forced out of there gold position, so they will escape into stronger  dollar or yen .. because they will not drop at that time ..
I think they are already going into the yen because why is the yen stronger than the dollar?
are euros doing this, or is something else going on ??
I think japan it self is playing this game and will fluctuate there yen to get advance against the dollar .. I think we will see a lot of Japanese companies buying companies and banks in Europa ..and USA and other countries..

At that time also India will get hit by Europa and the US, and there will be changes in the gold buying there buy making it less popular to buy gold , so after the dumping of Europa we maybe will see a dumping of India of there gold ..
I also see that it is not going very good with India, and maybe will lead to problems in the government, I think they are now really losing against China ..I think the Asia market will not be able to compensate for the decline of India because they are to focused on the west so they will go into spiral of bad times and follow Europa.
I think Korean and china will be the leaders in the East and push the development here but the real shadow power will be Japan, Japan will be doing very good but they will make the number so bad that they can hide in the mist. 
I also see that there will be more people willing to move to the east , but also see that the east will protect its position more .. so it will become more difficult ..
In Korea also problems start and people are educated to high , the same as Japan but in Japan the population will go down and In Korea it will not , the best what could happen to south Korea will be a reuniting of the north . this will boost Korea the same way as Germany this will increase there work force with cheap labor what will be good for there industry..Japan will go in the direction of robot factories so they will cut cost in that way.. canon and some other companies want to have these new factories online in 2015 and there by changing the world market again..  
So china and some other countries in Asia will buy up the gold of Europa during these bad times but they still will not be able to buy it all , and that will result in a lower price in silver and gold.
 I think Japan will switch really slow in to gold or will do this with there foreign banks..
Also at the moment in Japan silver is like a dump material you can only sell silver coins official against dump prices here and there are no official store that gives you a premium that is only with gold and then it is even better to by bars .. 
So coins in japan are hobby and not really an investment. I think that will change in the next 5 years. 


Then after a while or earlier the big game changer will start .. the drop of the dollar .. and there by a rise in gold and silver again .. just before this change all banks will be in a dollar position because it value is better that the gold price ..so they will hurry in buying gold and then the situation will complete turn around where gold will go up and the dollar goes down ..
It is called the shaking out of the gold people .. the people will be mainly the banks and not the normal people. The normal people will be made it difficult to buy gold and silver in the near future so that after the change the wealth will not really move .. into the normal people.

So i think the next 8 months a lot will happen and for the sort term I hope we will see a low again in the price but if not I have already a good position in the market but I hope to make it bigger before the big push up or the big drop ..
I am now also looking at ground here in Japan , as Jim Rogers say go in to farming .. so I also have that project running .. and because I think the silver coin position here in Japan will change in the next 5 years I want to start a business to educate and inform people about the Japanese market and when it gets populate to invest in silver coins I will already be in that market and build a name here. 









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